An era is ending for the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement that she will stand down at next year’s Holyrood election is the most visible indication of this. Departing, too, is her unfortunate, short-lived successor Humza Yousaf.
Sturgeon’s best friend and loyal acolyte Shona Robison, currently the Finance Secretary, is leaving, as is the Transport Secretary, Fiona Hyslop. Both, like Sturgeon, have been MSPs since the Scottish Parliament was founded in 1999, and have played key roles over the SNP’s long period in power. So far, nearly 20 Nats have announced they will step down.
If this is a symbolic moment, it is also a practical opportunity. The SNP is changing – and it needs to. First Minister John Swinney and his deputy Kate Forbes are attempting to renew their party in office, and have dramatically shifted away from the heavy-handed social justice policies that defined Sturgeon’s time in office.
Swinney was gracious in his comments this week about his predecessor. She had “changed the lives of people in Scotland for the better”, he said, and “made an extraordinary contribution to the work of the Scottish Parliament, and particularly to the Scottish government as our longest serving first minister”.
There is no denying the impact Sturgeon has had on Scottish politics, and on Scotland. She is undoubtedly the devolution era’s most dominant figure. But Swinney, I expect, will not be entirely sorry to see her, and a fair chunk of the Sturgeonites, clear their desks.
Sturgeon remains at the centre of Operation Branchform, the police investigation into the alleged misuse of party funds during her time as first minister. Her husband Peter Murrell, from whom she has separated, has been charged with embezzlement. It will be easier for the SNP to move on from that episode if the main protagonists are no longer on the scene.
But it’s not just allegations of criminality that the Nats are keen to leave behind. They’re trying – with limited success – to move on from Sturgeon’s gender wars, which did so much to damage public support for the government and which have created a bitter and lasting breach with women who saw their rights as under threat. They’re talking less about independence. They’re trying, too, to run an administration that is focused on fixing the public services that were neglected on Sturgeon’s watch, and to boost economic growth now they’re no longer tied to the anti-growth Scottish Greens, whom Sturgeon brought into coalition. The time of modish, woke policy is over, for now at least.
And rightly so, because the Scottish government is, like the rest of us, suddenly living in a very different world. Although Rachel Reeves delivered a multibillion-pound boost to Scotland’s coffers in her Budget, there is a tightening ahead as Keir Starmer boosts defence spending and cuts the money available in unprotected areas, including welfare. Tough decisions in Bute House – of the kind Sturgeon could never seem to stomach – are inevitable.
An immediate sign of how seriously the SNP is taking the new climate is on defence. Despite a wobble following the Oval Office meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump – which led Swinney to call for the US president’s state visit to be cancelled – the Nats have rowed in behind Starmer. As one senior source close to the First Minister told me this week, after a meeting with Foreign Secretary David Lammy, “we are going to be a supporter of the UK government on this. It’s crystal clear that there is political goodwill to see this task through.”
That won’t mean a free pass – the Nats are unhappy that foreign aid and welfare are being raided to fund defence spending. Nor are they willing to alter their opposition to nuclear weapons. And they have yet to clarify fully what actions they will take and where any money will come from. But they say they are ready to move “at pace”, probably within the next couple of months, towards stepping up support for Scotland’s defence industry, a sector with which they have previously enjoyed an uneasy relationship. “We will be clear in our support for the industry,” the source said. “They are already more pleased than they have been in recent years to see the positivity from the FM.”
This is undoubtedly a change in the kind of tone we are used to hearing from the Nats around matters related to warfare. Leadership sources are critical of a recent defence debate at Holyrood, where left-wing MSPs focused on human rights and due diligence. “The simple reality is that human rights and due diligence will not stop Russian tanks. What works as a debating point in the parliament doesn’t work on the battlefield,” said a Scottish government insider.
Ministers are awaiting the outcome of UK and EU defence reviews before making a final decision about how and where to act, but are keen to fill the skills gaps that defence companies have identified, especially around developing military technology. They point out that advances here could have knock-on benefits for Scotland’s nascent space industry and its offshore wind sector. The nation’s universities and colleges are also cited as useful centres of research and skills.
“Scotland is well-placed to take part in European rearmament and to defend the northern approaches,” said a leadership source. They believe that Swinney’s reassuring manner means he is well-placed to lead any internal debate within his party over a refocusing on military issues. The independence movement’s pacifist wing “will be given space to air their views, and some will be irreconcilable, but they are nowhere near the majority”.
Perhaps, given the gravity of the global situation, Nicola Sturgeon would have adopted a similar stance, but there’s plenty of room for doubt about that, given her distaste for the private sector and leftish leanings. Anyway, she is yesterday’s woman. John Swinney is in the hot seat and, by all accounts, intends to be his own man.
[See also: How the right weaponised the “vibe shift”]
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